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    中國外貿該如何保持良好增長?How can China's foreign trade maintain good growth?

    【摘要】:
    在全球范圍內供給與需求多重因素共同作用下,上半年我國對外貿易出現快速增長:18.07萬億元的貨物進出口規模創下歷史同期最好水平,與2019年同期相比增長了22.8%。截至今年6月,我國月度進出口已連續13個月實現同比正增長,外貿穩增長態勢進一步鞏固。?隨著全球疫情防控逐漸進入常態化,國際市場需求調整,許多制造業國家重啟生產,是否會對我國外貿出口形成結構調整壓力?外貿快速增長態勢還能保持嗎?有專家表

    在全球范圍內供給與需求多重因素共同作用下,上半年我國對外貿易出現快速增長:18.07萬億元的貨物進出口規模創下歷史同期最好水平,與2019年同期相比增長了22.8%。截至今年6月,我國月度進出口已連續13個月實現同比正增長,外貿穩增長態勢進一步鞏固。

     

    隨著全球疫情防控逐漸進入常態化,國際市場需求調整,許多制造業國家重啟生產,是否會對我國外貿出口形成結構調整壓力?外貿快速增長態勢還能保持嗎?有專家表示,盡管下半年國際供需缺口出現變化,但仍有可能通過針對性的政策及切實降低外貿企業綜合成本等舉措,將目前外貿良好增長的態勢保持下去。

    供應鏈適應國際變化

    全球疫情暴發以來,我國外貿在服務保障各國人民生產生活的創造性實踐中,綜合競爭力得到進一步錘煉和提升。一方面,全球經濟復蘇對國際貿易及我國產品出口起到提振作用。另一方面,我國經濟整體內生動力在持續增強,主要經濟指標持續向好,生產需求繼續回升,為外貿穩增長奠定了堅實基礎,穩外貿政策紅利持續釋放,更為外貿發展創造了有利條件。

    “以人民幣計,1月至6月中國外貿進出口增長27.1%,規模創歷史新高,這是全球范圍內供給與需求多重因素共同作用的結果?!鄙虅詹繉ν赓Q易司司長李興乾不久前表示,上半年外貿快速增長最關鍵的因素,是需求牽引供給。

    疫情導致國際市場出現了巨大的供需缺口,中國外貿供應鏈體系能夠快速適應國際市場需求變化,及時提供適銷對路的產品,滿足各國各地區防疫和生產生活需要。從口罩、防護服、檢測試劑盒乃至疫苗,再到服務于各國民眾居家辦公和生活需要,中國外貿企業充分調動生產資源,提高研發設計水平,加強產品質量監控,出口了大量優質消費品。

    除了數量增長之外,上半年外貿高質量發展也取得明顯成果。比如,高水平開放平臺增長迅速。上半年,我國綜合保稅區、自由貿易試驗區、海南自由貿易港進出口增速均顯著高于我國外貿總體增速。同時,市場主體活力明顯增強。有進出口實際企業47.9萬家,增長8.1%。民營企業進出口增長35.1%,高于外貿整體增速8個百分點。此外,新業態新模式加快培育、對主要貿易伙伴較快增長、商品結構更趨優化、服務貿易創新發展等特點也較突出。

     

    環境改善挑戰仍存

     

    隨著全球新冠疫苗接種進度加快,部分國家已經出現經濟回暖,生產逐步恢復,這對中國外貿既是挑戰也是機遇。挑戰是,我國出口將面臨市場競爭的加??;機遇是,這些變化恰是中國外貿產業鏈、供應鏈更好適應國際市場需求,提升競爭力的機會和動力。

    “上半年,我國外貿強勁增長一方面表現為高出口增速,另一方面是占世界份額的增加?!敝袊鐣茖W院世界經濟與政治研究所研究員蘇慶義在接受記者采訪時表示,隨著全球經濟形勢變化,供需缺口會縮減。盡管不如上半年,但我國下半年外貿面臨的總體情況依然較為樂觀。

    商務部研究院國際市場所副主任、研究員許英明則認為,下半年國際市場供需缺口將會有所緩解,但依然較大,供給端復蘇速度仍不及需求端。

    “外貿高速增長有國際訂單轉移的因素,國外產業鏈由于疫情中斷,去年以來部分國際訂單轉向我國?!敝袊暧^經濟研究院對外經濟研究所研究員楊長湧表示,疫情形勢好轉,國外產業鏈供應鏈恢復,并不意味著訂單會重新轉出去?!氨M管國外產能逐漸恢復,但是從國際貿易運作規律和跨國公司防風險的規律來看,不會出現大規模訂單轉移現象”。

    商務部外貿司近期監測的情況顯示,約40%的外貿企業新簽出口訂單同比增長。外部需求回暖、國內經濟穩中向好將繼續支撐我國外貿發展。

     

    著力解決“一箱難求”問題

     

     

    隨著去年同期基數逐步抬高,下半年外貿增速將有所回落,外貿發展仍面臨諸多不確定、不穩定因素。原材料價格高企、海運物流不暢等問題進一步擠壓外貿企業利潤空間,也影響企業接單意愿。對此,李興乾表示,我國下半年將重點圍繞企業面臨的突出困難和問題,研究出臺更有針對性的政策舉措,切實降低外貿企業綜合成本。

    許英明認為,下半年要全力做好大宗商品保供穩價工作,“一方面,繼續投放國家儲備,并向中小企業有所傾斜,增加有效供給,穩定原材料價格。另一方面,密切跟蹤大宗商品價格走勢,加強原材料市場預期引導?!蓖瑫r,著力解決“一箱難求”“一艙難求”等難題。支持企業提升集裝箱產量,進一步主動擴大進口。鼓勵海運企業、船公司、港口加強合作,引導企業增加主要海運航線臨時船舶的運行次數。此外,落實好對外貿市場主體尤其是中小微企業的支持政策。落實對中小出口企業稅費、金融支持政策,支持各類市場主體特別是中小微外貿企業穩定生產。

    專家表示,在新發展階段,我國構建新發展格局意味著不能再靠傳統優惠政策提振出口。在穩定出口部門就業的前提下,更重要的是提升企業競爭力,切實做好擴大內需的工作。要堅定不移構建新發展格局,不因外部環境而改變自身的中長期目標。

    Under the combined action of multiple factors of global supply and demand, China's foreign trade increased rapidly in the first half of the year: the import and export scale of 18.07 trillion yuan of goods hit the best level in the same period in history, an increase of 22.8% compared with the same period in 2019. As of June this year, China's monthly import and export has achieved positive year-on-year growth for 13 consecutive months, and the steady growth trend of foreign trade has been further consolidated.
    With the gradual normalization of global epidemic prevention and control, the adjustment of international market demand and the restart of production in many manufacturing countries, will there be pressure on China's foreign trade export to form structural adjustment? Can the rapid growth of foreign trade be maintained? Some experts said that although the international supply-demand gap changed in the second half of the year, it is still possible to maintain the current good growth trend of foreign trade through targeted policies and measures to effectively reduce the comprehensive cost of foreign trade enterprises.
    Supply chain adapts to international changes
    Since the outbreak of the global epidemic, the comprehensive competitiveness of China's foreign trade has been further tempered and improved in the creative practice of serving and ensuring the production and life of people all over the world. On the one hand, the global economic recovery has boosted international trade and China's product exports. On the other hand, the overall endogenous power of China's economy continues to increase, the main economic indicators continue to improve, the production demand continues to pick up, which has laid a solid foundation for the steady growth of foreign trade, and the dividends of the steady foreign trade policy continue to be released, creating favorable conditions for the development of foreign trade.
    "In terms of RMB, China's foreign trade import and export increased by 27.1% from January to June, with a record scale, which is the result of the combined action of multiple factors of supply and demand worldwide." Li Xingqian, director of the foreign trade department of the Ministry of Commerce, said not long ago that the most critical factor in the rapid growth of foreign trade in the first half of the year was demand pulling supply.
    The epidemic has led to a huge gap between supply and demand in the international market. China's foreign trade supply chain system can quickly adapt to the changes in international market demand, provide marketable products in time, and meet the epidemic prevention, production and living needs of all countries and regions. From masks, protective clothing, test kits and even vaccines to serving the home, office and living needs of people all over the world, China's foreign trade enterprises have fully mobilized production resources, improved the level of R & D and design, strengthened product quality monitoring, and exported a large number of high-quality consumer goods.
    In addition to the quantitative growth, the high-quality development of foreign trade also achieved remarkable results in the first half of the year. For example, high-level open platforms are growing rapidly. In the first half of the year, the import and export growth of China's comprehensive bonded zone, free trade pilot zone and Hainan free trade port were significantly higher than the overall growth of China's foreign trade. At the same time, the vitality of market players has increased significantly. There were 479000 actual import and export enterprises, an increase of 8.1%. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 35.1%, 8 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade. In addition, the characteristics of accelerating the cultivation of new business forms and new models, rapid growth for major trading partners, more optimized commodity structure, innovative development of service trade and so on are also prominent.
    Environmental improvement challenges remain
    With the acceleration of global new crown vaccination, the economy of some countries has recovered and production has gradually recovered, which is both a challenge and an opportunity for China's foreign trade. The challenge is that China's export will face the intensification of market competition; The opportunity is that these changes are the opportunity and driving force for China's foreign trade industry chain and supply chain to better adapt to the needs of the international market and enhance competitiveness.
    "In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade grew strongly. On the one hand, it showed high export growth, on the other hand, it increased its share in the world." Su Qingyi, a researcher at the Institute of world economy and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with reporters that with the changes in the global economic situation, the supply-demand gap will shrink. Although not as good as the first half of the year, the overall situation of China's foreign trade in the second half of the year is still optimistic.
    Xu Yingming, deputy director and researcher of the international market Institute of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the supply-demand gap in the international market will be alleviated in the second half of the year, but it is still large, and the recovery speed of the supply side is still lower than that of the demand side.
    "The rapid growth of foreign trade is due to the transfer of international orders. Due to the interruption of the epidemic situation in foreign industrial chains, some international orders have turned to China since last year." Yang Changyong, a researcher at the Institute of foreign economics of the Chinese Academy of macroeconomic research, said that the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of foreign industrial chain supply chain do not mean that orders will be transferred out again“ Although foreign production capacity is gradually restored, there will be no large-scale order transfer from the perspective of the operation law of international trade and the risk prevention law of multinational companies ".
    Recent monitoring by the foreign trade department of the Ministry of Commerce shows that about 40% of foreign trade enterprises have signed new export orders, with a year-on-year increase. The recovery of external demand and the steady improvement of domestic economy will continue to support the development of China's foreign trade.
    Strive to solve the problem of "one box is difficult to find"
    With the gradual increase of the base in the same period last year, the growth rate of foreign trade will fall in the second half of the year, and the development of foreign trade still faces many uncertain and unstable factors. High raw material prices and poor shipping logistics further squeeze the profit space of foreign trade enterprises and affect the willingness of enterprises to receive orders. In this regard, Li Xingqian said that in the second half of the year, China will focus on the outstanding difficulties and problems faced by enterprises, study and introduce more targeted policies and measures to effectively reduce the comprehensive costs of foreign trade enterprises.
    Xu Yingming believes that in the second half of the year, we should make every effort to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities. "On the one hand, we should continue to put in national reserves and give preference to small and medium-sized enterprises, increase effective supply and stabilize the price of raw materials. On the other hand, we will closely track the price trend of bulk commodities and strengthen the expected guidance of the raw material market. " At the same time, efforts will be made to solve the problems of "one box is difficult to find" and "one cabin is difficult to find". Support enterprises to increase container production and further take the initiative to expand imports. Encourage shipping enterprises, shipping companies and ports to strengthen cooperation, and guide enterprises to increase the number of temporary ships on major shipping routes. In addition, we will implement support policies for foreign trade market players, especially small, medium-sized and micro enterprises. We will implement tax and financial support policies for small and medium-sized export enterprises, and support various market players, especially small, medium-sized and micro foreign trade enterprises, to stabilize production.

     

    Experts said that in the new development stage, China's construction of a new development pattern means that it can no longer rely on traditional preferential policies to boost exports. On the premise of stabilizing employment in the export sector, it is more important to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises and do a good job in expanding domestic demand. We should unswervingly build a new development pattern and not change our medium - and long-term goals due to the external environment.

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